China currency trade deficit

Posted: Corsar On: 01.07.2017

Report Trade and Globalization. Thesejobs constituted However, this relatively recent manufacturing boom comes on the heels of more than a decade of sharp declines in manufacturing employment.

Between March and Octoberthe United States lost 5. This paper argues that reviving U. Global currency manipulation 1 is one of the most important causes of growing U. Currency manipulation distorts international trade flows by artificially lowering the cost of U. This leads to goods trade deficits that displace U. Without any increase in federal spending or taxation, the United States would reap enormous benefits. As this paper explains, over three years a reduction in the U.

This paper explains that over three years it would:. Supply-side constraints also play a role: The United States and its domestic manufacturers are competing in an environment where many other countries, including Germany, Japan, China, and Korea, operate comprehensive manufacturing and labor force development programs to support their traded goods industries; the United States does not.

GDP after three years. Fully eliminating the goods trade deficit requires implementing policies that will help restore demand for U. As detailed in this paper, such policies include:. Such steps could lead to the complete elimination of the U. For example, the rise in the U. Currency manipulation by China and other countries, such as Japan and Singapore, is the largest single cause of U. Currency manipulation artificially reduces currency values, which acts as a subsidy to all the exports of these countries.

It also acts as a tax on U. China is the most important competitor for U. Although many legal and regulatory tools are available or have been proposed to reduce or eliminate currency manipulation, currency manipulation could be ended by the U.

The president could simply declare that the United States will no longer sell Treasury bills and other government assets to China and other countries that refuse to allow the United States to purchase their government assets currency manipulators generally refuse to sell their government assets to the United States, effectively closing their capital markets.

The United States and other countries may legally refuse to sell government assets to currency manipulators because the World Trade Organization and International Monetary Fund do not require the United States to maintain free markets in capital flows, only in goods and services Gros See Scott a for a summary of research on trade, currency manipulation, and policy alternatives that could be used to address it.

Inabout 86 percent of U. International Trade Commission USITC Therefore, when imports are higher than exports and the share of imports is expanding, i. And, as explained in the previous section, currency manipulation has encouraged more rapid growth of U. For example, when the U. And when the U. Therefore, it is no surprise that the country was losing manufacturing jobs as the goods trade deficit increased.

The United States lost 5. Conversely, although the manufacturing sector employed only 8. The loss of manufacturing jobs has been particularly costly for middle-class workers, especially those without a college degree, and their families.

Manufacturing is one of the best sources of jobs with high wages and full benefits for such workers. The dwindling number of these jobs has hit manufacturing-intensive states such as Ohio especially hard in recent decades. As seen in Figure Athe decline in manufacturing employment across the country and throughout the Midwest since the turn of the century was steep—and was particularly dramatic in Ohio.

Between January and Octobermanufacturing employment in Ohio declined by more than a third, falling to Authors' analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics BLS a. This is particularly important given the role the manufacturing sector has played in providing high wages and generous benefits to Ohio workers due in large part to higher unionization rates in that industry.

To close the jobs shortfall within three years, Ohio would need to add an average of 10, jobs each month. While Ohio added 95, jobs from December to July averaging 13, a monthemployment growth has slowed considerably, with a total of just 2, jobs created from July to October fewer than per month.

Authors' analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics BLS a and Congressional Budget Office data a. Jobs created by eliminating currency manipulation would help shrink the state jobs shortfall as well as the larger national jobs shortfall EPI Between Februarywhen U.

But manufacturing employment declined slightly between July and October The recent slowing of U. The slowdown suggests that further growth in manufacturing will require additional demand stimulus. Note, however, that manufacturing employment year-over-year since January has still been much stronger in the Midwest and Ohio than nationwide, as shown in Figure A.

A full revaluation of the Chinese yuan and four other undervalued Asian currencies would reduce the U. Gagnon estimates that U. This EPI briefing paper estimates the effects of eliminating currency manipulation over three years, modeled as having started in A baseline forecast was generated for U.

The trade forecasts extrapolated trade flows by assuming that rates of growth in real exports and imports at the industry level between and remain unchanged between and The base scenario assumes that growth in trade continues at those levels through The effects on the United States and Ohio of ending currency manipulation are summarized in Table 1. The model estimates that ending currency manipulation would increase U. In other words, as the stimulus from net exports boosts U. See methodological appendix for further details on the IMPLAN model.

Authors' analysis of trade data from the U. International Trade CommissionBureau of Labor Statistics a; bBureau of Labor Statistics Office of Employment Projectionsand IMPLAN model MIG Inc. As a result of the increase in net goods exports, U. GDP in CBO a. Thus, the reduction in the U.

This is because trade has a large impact on manufacturing employment, and in Ohio had a larger manufacturing share of employment The growth in net goods exports and GDP would support substantial numbers of jobs. At the national level, about 2. In Ohio, 94, tojobs would be created, equal to 1.

These findings demonstrate that increasing net goods exports by ending currency manipulation is one of the most significant job-generating policies available at the state and national levels—especially given political gridlock over fiscal policy. The effect on the unemployment rate would be somewhat smaller than indicated by these labor force shares. One of the characteristics of the Great Recession is that millions of workers dropped out of the labor force as the number of unemployed workers soared relative to the number of job openings Shierholz a.

As job openings increase due to falling trade deficits, some workers would reenter the labor force, thereby putting upward pressure on the unemployment rate. Overall, at the national level, the unemployment rate would likely decline by between 1. This is a reflection of the job-creating power of more effective trade policy.

In Octoberthe national jobs shortfall was 9. This also reflects that Ohio would benefit disproportionately from reducing the U. Reducing the goods trade deficit would also generate a substantial increase in wage incomes in the United States and Ohio.

The direct, indirect, and induced U. Direct jobs are those supported directly by industries affected by increased net exports, such as those producing aircraft, machine tools, and chemicals.

Betweenand 1, jobs would be directly supported by the elimination of currency manipulation. These would be concentrated primarily in manufacturing industries, which produce most U. An additionalto 1, indirect jobs would be supported. These jobs are in industries that supply parts, materials, and other inputs including services to industries that produce net exports. Induced jobs are the result of additional spending of wages and other income generated by the production of net exports.

Since wages are relatively high in manufacturing where most direct and indirect jobs are locatedsuch spending generates large numbers of jobs, primarily in non-manufacturing industries, since domestic manufactured products represent only a small share of total U. The growth of net goods exports spurred by ending currency manipulation would support an additional 1, to 2, induced jobs.

The sum of direct and indirect jobs supported in these two scenarios is about 1. Table 3 and Table 4 show the impacts of increased net goods exports through ending currency manipulation on employment by industry in the United States and Ohio, respectively. By far the largest number of jobs is gained in manufacturing, both nationally and in Ohio.

In the United States,to 1, manufacturing jobs would be created by eliminating currency manipulation. International Trade CommissionBureau of Labor Statistics a, bBureau of Labor Statistics Office of Employment Projectionsand IMPLAN model MIG Inc. Durable goods industries encompass some of the most high-wage, high-technology occupations within manufacturing.

Some of the biggest winners include non-electrical machinery 81, tojobs createdcomputer and electronic parts 70, tojobs createdand motor vehicles and parts 52, tojobs created.

Overall, the creation ofto 1, U.

Trump's quick wins on China trade won't wipe out the deficit - Apr. 10,

When added to themanufacturing jobs already created between February and October BLS afrom nearly half to more than three-fourths of the 2. Ending currency manipulation would not restore all of the manufacturing jobs lost since the s, but it would result in the largest gain of manufacturing jobs since the late s the last period of sharply declining U. Outside of manufacturing, the largest job gains in the United States would occur in health and social servicestojobs gained and in retail tradetojobs gained.

Industries such as professional, scientific, and technical servicestojobs gainedfinance and insurancetojobs gainedand administrative and waste servicestojobs gained are major providers of services to manufacturing.

The impacts of eliminating currency manipulation on manufacturing employment would be proportionately larger in Ohio than in the United States, as shown in Table 4. In Ohio, 36, to 75, manufacturing jobs would be created by eliminating currency manipulation. Within Ohio manufacturing, 27, to 58, of these jobs would be in durable goods industries, or The durable goods share would be more than three-quarters of the total of all manufacturing jobs gained in Ohio.

High-wage, durable goods industries with big job gains in Ohio would include motor vehicles and parts 6, to 13, jobs creatednon-electrical machinery 6, to 13, jobs createdand primary metals 3, to 6, jobs created. Outside of manufacturing, the largest job gains in Forex cargo philippines office hours would occur in health and social services 7, to 15, jobs gained and in retail trade mytotalmoneymakeover frugal, to 13, jobs gained.

Other industries with large gains, such as administrative and waste services 4, to 10, jobs gained forex brokers in dubai, professional, scientific, and technical services 4, to 9, jobs gainedand finance and insurance 4, to 8, jobs gained are how can i use adsense to make money providers of services to manufacturing in Ohio.

As shown in Table 1 earlier, reducing the goods trade deficit by ending currency manipulation would increase U. Increases in GDP have a substantial positive effect on tax revenues, since they reflect increases in wages and other forms of taxable income. In addition, as employment rises, expenditures on unemployment compensation, welfare, and other safety net programs decline. We use fiscal multipliers derived from Congressional Budget Office data on the output gap and cyclical contributions to the budget deficit to estimate the impacts of reducing the U.

This would reduce the U. Creating jobs by ending currency manipulation would also increase tax revenues and decrease public is the forex is gambling this is the answer in the states. Table 5 shows the fiscal impacts on state and local budgets in Ohio of ending currency manipulation.

The IMPLAN model projects that increasing U. These projections illustrate that the best way to solve state and local budget problems is to grow the economy. International Trade CommissionBureau of Labor Statistics a; bBureau of Labor Statistics Office of Employment ProjectionsKondo and Svecand IMPLAN model MIG Inc.

The reductions in spending associated with job creation would do even more to improve state and local budgets in Ohio. Spending projections are based on a state econometric model Kondo and Svec that estimates the impact of changes in state GDP on state spending.

If the increase in net exports were maintained or increased afterending currency manipulation could generate tens of billions in budget single stock trading pause in effect and additional revenues for state and local governments in Ohio over the next decade.

These budget resources could allow the state to rehire thousands of teachers, firefighters, and other public safety officials who have been laid off since the Great Recession began, and to make other investments in education, infrastructure, and the environment that would help generate sustainable growth in Ohio make money using quidco years to come.

Thus the elimination of currency manipulation has the potential to generate substantial benefits in terms of employment, GDP, and the fiscal balance in the United States and Ohio. As the result of more than a decade of currency manipulation, unfair trade policies, and our failure to compete with the manufacturing and training policies of other nations, U. GDP inas shown in Figure Cand an output gap of 3. The output gap is the difference between potential economic output—what the economy could produce with higher, but noninflationary, levels of employment and industrial capacity utilization—and actual economic output.

Authors' analysis of U. Ex post changes in U. Estimates for — for each of these series were extrapolated from the end point values for and using constant, compound rates of growth. Authors' analysis of Bureau of Economic Analysis National Income and Product Accounts BEA aInternational Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook IMF bCongressional Budget Office aand IMPLAN model MIG Inc.

Eliminating the remainder of the U. A number of factors besides currency manipulation contribute to large U. On the part of other countries, these include unfair trade policies such binary options pairing strategy subsidies, trade barriers, and illegal appropriation of the intellectual property of U. Underinvestment in infrastructure is another critical factor.

Enacting policies to more effectively stimulate demand, including ending currency manipulation, rebuilding infrastructure, investing in clean and renewable technology industries, and eliminating how to make money off lending club trade policies such as dumping, subsidies, and other unfair trade barriers are the most important steps needed to rebuild U.

New trade policies to respond to a dynamic and increasingly hostile international environment would move toward a restructuring of the world trading system so that it supports fair, balanced, and sustainable trade. And the massive public investments needed to rebuild U. While policies that address the demand side of the binary options pairing strategy are critical, supply-side assistance is also crucial; U.

Trump: China not a currency manipulator, trade deficit OK in exchange for help on North Korea - MarketWatch

The United States and its domestic manufacturers are operating in an environment where many other countries, including Germany, Japan, China, and Korea, operate comprehensive, supply-side programs to support their traded goods industries.

The United States also needs an intermediary institution to provide working and investment capital to small and medium-sized manufacturers, which often lack access to U. In addition, federal and state governments should work with schools, unions, and manufacturers to develop improved school-to-work training programs for non-college graduates, modeled on German and Danish labor force policies.

Finally, Japan has a Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry METIa powerful agency that works to ensure that foreign trade policy complements efforts to strengthen domestic manufacturing interests. China through its five-year plans also provides critical strategic support to manufacturing efforts.

The major elements of a more effective national trade and industrial policy were outlined in the previous section. A few examples will illustrate the scale of resources and commitments required to raise manufacturing support in the United States to a level on par with other countries.

In the debates about the future of manufacturing, comparisons are frequently drawn between the decline of employment in agriculture and that in manufacturing.

However, agriculture has continued to be a major U. One of the primary reasons for rising output in agriculture is the steady growth of productivity output per acre. Among the foremost reasons for the large and steady rise in agricultural productivity has been the key role played by the federal government in supporting research and its dissemination and diffusion. Resources dedicated to this task include the U. The entity that comes closest to performing a similar role in manufacturing may be the relatively obscure National Institute of Standards and Technology NIST.

Some 72 percent of USDA expenditures are for nutrition assistance the Women, Infants and Children programwhich only indirectly benefits agriculture. However, china currency trade deficit generated 10 quickest way to get rupees wind waker as much output as did agriculture in Thus, per dollar of economic output generated, the USDA automated forex robots more than times as much to support forex broker 0.5 spread and related activities as NIST spends on manufacturing research and related activities.

Comparative research by Ezell and Atkinson has shown that U. As a share of GDP, Canada spends more than seven times as much as the United States on manufacturing extension and services programs, and Japan spends nearly 23 times more than the United States. It supports more than 80 research units and 60 Fraunhofer Institutes and in had a staff of 20, more than half of whom are scientists and engineers.

Almost 30 percent of its funding is provided by the German federal and state lander governments. GDP is approximately 4. Thus, both the German and Japanese examples suggest U. Expanding to a program of wauchula cattle market scale would require time and resources to ensure that the needed capacities were developed and the resources well invested.

But expanding china currency trade deficit MEP program would by no means be sufficient to restore U. As a result, over the past decade Germany has maintained a large and growing trade surplus even relative to low-wage countries outside the eurozone, despite having some of the highest manufacturing compensation rates in the world BLS There are externalities that lead U.

Byron biodiversity conservation strategy 2004 are also market imperfections in capital markets that need to be addressed with new public institutions, as suggested above.

These market imperfections provide an economic justification for investing public resources in activities that would enhance U. While it is beyond the scope of this paper to detail a comprehensive program to develop a world-class environment buying closeouts overstocks support U. Rebuilding manufacturing through nitto legends how to make money fast trade can help restructure the U.

On the other hand, implementing more effective trade and industrial policies, coupled with massive investments in infrastructure, clean technologies, and renewable energy, could reduce or eliminate the U.

This would support millions of additional good jobs, add hundreds of billions of dollars to U. GDP, and reduce unemployment and federal budget deficits while greatly improving state and local finances. These policies would be win-win for the United States, its workers, U. Ending currency manipulation is one of the most effective tools available to support job creation in the United States and Ohio.

china currency trade deficit

Currency manipulation can be eliminated simply by making it illegal for China and other currency how to get more money on def jam icon to euro rupee exchange rate rbi U.

Treasury bills and other government assets. Ending currency manipulation would lead to the creation of 2. Ending currency manipulation would reduce unemployment in Ohio by between 1. Ending currency manipulation would lower the U.

Finally, it could increase U. Ending currency manipulation is the best policy tool available for creating millions of jobs in the United States and nearlyor more jobs in Ohio, while increasing tax revenues and reducing spending at the state and national levels. Ending currency manipulation can harness this unused capital and the labor of millions of Americans, and it can help grow the economies of the United States and Ohio and help reverse the effects of the worst recession of the past 75 years.

It is time for the United States and other nations to take the actions needed to end the destabilizing effects of currency manipulation, to help the world economy recover from past and present downturns, and put all nations on a path toward balanced, sustainable growth. But ending currency manipulation would not eliminate the entire U. This residual deficit represents both a threat and an opportunity. The United States should follow the lead of other advanced economies and create a world-class environment to support domestic manufacturing in the United States.

This will require careful planning and substantial investments, but the potential rewards are great. Eliminating the total U. Strengthened support of domestic manufacturing can also help close or eliminate the U. If this opportunity is ignored, the United States could easily slide into a full decade of high unemployment and massive losses of actual and potential output. Ending currency manipulation and rolling back U. It will not be easy or cheap, but it is well worth the required investments.

Scott is director of trade and manufacturing policy research at the Economic Policy Institute. He joined EPI as an international economist in Before that, he was an assistant professor with the College of Business and Management at the University of Maryland at College Park. His areas of research include international economics and trade agreements and their impacts on working people in the United States and other countries, the economic impacts of foreign investment, and the macroeconomic effects of trade and capital flows.

He has a Ph. She received her Ph. She also holds a M. She is the author of the book Sick and Tired: Health Care System Fails Its Patients Polipoint Press, Jorgensen has served as an advisor to the Census Bureau Advisory Committee on the Decennial Census and chaired the Bureau of Labor Statistics Labor Research Advisory Subcommittee.

She previously worked as an economist for the Public Policy Department of the AFL-CIO. Hall previously served as director of operations and research for the Connecticut EARN partner, Connecticut Voices for Children, where he played a leading role in work related to family economic security and state tax and budget issues. He is the author or co-author of dozens of reports, and his work has been extensively cited by statewide media. The analyses presented here used the IMPLAN economic impact assessment model version 3.

The IMPLAN model is based on input-output accounting to capture the interdependencies between different sectors in the national and regional economies. The impact analysis tracked the commodity flows from producers to intermediate and final consumers to estimate the impact of an improvement in the trade balance on output, value added, employment, and state and local taxes.

These other producers, in turn, purchase goods and services. The IMPLAN model is built primarily from data collected by the U. The data used in the IMPLAN modeling study are expressed in real dollars. The analysis consisted of three steps. The first step estimated the U. To link the U. In the second step of the analysis, the estimated Ohio output impact was used as an input into the Ohio IMPLAN model.

The resulting output was the direct employment impacts across detailed industries, to avoid double-counting indirect and induced impacts. The final step estimated the Ohio state and local tax impact for various sources of taxes using the Ohio IMPLAN model. For the United States, baseline forecasts of U. GDP and other macroeconomic variables employment, unemployment, labor force, employee compensation through are from the Congressional Budget Office a.

The analysis developed projections of macroeconomic variables for Ohio by regressing actual annual data for the same U. GDP for —, and then using the regression coefficients to project Ohio GDP for — based on the CBO a forecast of U.

china currency trade deficit

Base case models of Ohio labor force and employment also included dummy variables for the recession period because of the sharp drop in Ohio in these variables since or IMPLAN results were compared with U. The model estimating jobs recovered over three years through currency revaluation begins with the latest available annual data for as the baseline. All dollar-value projections modeled in this paper—e.

The top 20 currency manipulators identified by Gagnon are ranked in order of foreign exchange reserves as a share of national GDP: Libya, Hong Kong, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, Malaysia, China, Switzerland, Bolivia, Philippines, Israel, Angola, Korea, Russia, Denmark, Japan, Azerbaijan, and Argentina.

Bergsten and Gagnon18 also endorse the use of restrictions on purchases of U. In a more recent paper, Bergsten and Gagnon estimate that global currency manipulation has increased the U. The analysis generated projected changes in trade flows based on actual rates of growth of exports and imports of different types of goods. Further refinements of the simulation were not possible within the constraints of the model. The high-impact forecast assumes that the rate of growth of goods exports in each sector increases 3.

This is roughly consistent with a long-run estimate that changes in trade prices will affect real exports with a price elasticity of approximately 1. The low-impact scenario assumes that the rate of growth of exports increases by 1. These estimates are based on a CBO b projection that the budget deficit will decline by 70 percent between and under current policies in place as of August These estimates do not reflect the outcome of subsequent budget legislation. These results are consistent with data for Ohio from the U.

Census BureauSurvey of State and Local Finances for — This section draws selectively on Ezell and Atkinson and Meyerson Agriculture farms, fishing, and forestry was a constant 1. It is important to note that the German current account surplus, which was 5. As a result, Germany effectively devalued within the euro area. To some extent, Germany is to the rest of the EU what China is to the United States—an economy running big surpluses by exploiting, to different degrees, the non-adjustability of the exchange rate.

IMPLAN agriculture and manufacturing sectors were aggregated to match the four-digit NAICS structure. American Society of Civil Engineers. Fred, and Joseph E. Currency Manipulation, the US Economy, and the Global Economic Order. Peterson Institute for International Economics, Policy Brief Bivens, Josh, and Kathryn Anne Edwards.

Cheaper Than You Think—Why Smart Efforts to Spur Jobs Cost Less Than Advertised. Economic Policy Institute, Policy Memorandum No.

Bureau of Economic Analysis BEA. Bureau of Labor Statistics BLS. International Comparisons of Hourly Compensation Costs in Manufacturing, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Bureau of Labor Statistics Office of Employment Projections. Congressional Budget Office CBO. Economic Policy Institute EPI. Ezell, Stephen, and Robert D.

china currency trade deficit

International Benchmarking of Countries Policies and Programs Supporting SME Manufacturers. Fifty Ways to Leave Your Competitiveness Woes Behind: A National Traded Sector Competitiveness Strategy. Fieldhouse, Andrew, and Josh Bivens. News and World Report. Combating Widespread Currency Manipulation. Peterson Institute for International Economics Policy Brief No. Jobs, Wages, and Living Standards. International Monetary Fund IMF. International Financial Statistics [CD-ROM]. World Economic Outlook Database: Kondo, Ayako, and Justin Svec.

Faculty Research Series, Paper No. Working paper—draft subject to future revisions. The IMPLAN Input-output System. Report written by Scott A. Lindall and Douglas C. National Institute of Standards and Technology NIST.

Coupling Tax Fairness with Job Creation for a Stronger Economy. Economic Policy Institute, Issue Brief No. The Burden of Outsourcing: Non-oil Trade Deficit Costs More than 5 Million Jobs.

Economic Policy Institute, Briefing Paper No. The Benefits of Revaluation: Full Revaluation of the Chinese Yuan Would Increase U. GDP and Employment, Reduce the Federal Budget Deficit and Help Workers in China and other Asian Countries. Trade Deficit with China Cost More Than 2. Jobs Deficit Is 9 Million. Department of Agriculture USDA.

Budget Summary and Annual Performance Plan. International Trade Commission USITC. USITC Interactive Tariff and Trade DataWeb [Excel files]. See related work on Trade deficit China trade Financial globalization Currency policies Manufacturing. See more work by Robert E. ScottHelene Jorgensenand Douglas Hall. See related work on Trade deficitChina tradeFinancial globalizationCurrency policiesand Manufacturing. EPI is an independent, nonprofit think tank that researches the impact of economic trends and policies on working people in the United States.

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Report Trade and Globalization Reducing U. This paper explains that over three years it would: Create 94, tojobs equal to between 1. As detailed in this paper, such policies include: Currency manipulation, trade, and job loss in the United States and Ohio Growing U.

Currency manipulation, which is the largest single cause of U. Since the goods trade is dominated by manufacturing, goods trade deficits caused by currency manipulation have cost manufacturing jobs U. Ohio has been particularly hard-hit The loss of manufacturing jobs has been particularly costly for middle-class workers, especially those without a college degree, and their families.

Ending currency manipulation by China and others is the place to start',picture: Copy the code below to embed this chart on your website. See related work on Trade deficit China trade Financial globalization Currency policies Manufacturing See more work by Robert E. Sign up to stay informed. Track EPI on Twitter Tweets by EconomicPolicy! Follow EPI Eye St. Projects The Perkins Project on Worker Rights and Wages Tracking the wage and employment policies coming out of the White House, Congress, and the courts.

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