Performance of the stock market under democratic presidents vs republican presidents

Economics , election reform , Elections , safety net , tax policy , the economy , Politics News , News. As the election cycle heats up, the key question at stake for most Americans is economic growth and jobs. The right likes to argue that these conditions mark a clear failure of progressive policies, and in particular of the Obama administration.

Meanwhile, while conservatives often claim that their policies are good for the middle class, systematic studies by economists, political scientists and sociologists suggest these claims are overblown.

While economic growth alone is not sufficient for middle class and working class income growth, it is certainly necessary. The most systematic investigation of how parties affect economic growth was performed by economists Alan Blinder and Mark Watson.

Their results are unequivocal:. For many measures, including real GDP growth on which we concentrate , the performance gap is both large and statistically significant. The chart below shows the gaps in various indicators between Republican and Democratic presidents.

Democratic presidents average 4. Democrats also presided over a lower unemployment rate, higher stock market returns, higher corporate profits, higher compensation growth and higher productivity increases.

These 5 charts prove that the economy does better under Democratic presidents - simyviqoj.web.fc2.com

These results remain even after various controls are applied. Though the authors want to chalk these results up to luck, I have outlined a few reasons to suspect other factors may be at work. In a paper and a further analysis earlier this year , esteemed political scientist Larry Bartels has demonstrated that income growth is faster and more equal under Democratic presidents. He cites differences in policies like the minimum wage driving this gap.

As he notes , the real value of the minimum wage increased 16 cents a year under Democrats, but decreased by 6 cents a year under Republicans. The chart below suggests this effect is driven by both market conditioning see the gap in pre-tax income at the bottom and redistribution the post-tax gaps across the board.

They find that if states had adopted more liberal policies, the increase in inequality as measured by the Gini Coefficient would have been 60 percent smaller — and the share going to the top 1 percent would have been cut in half.

Studies of the Medicaid expansion have overwhelmingly shown that Republican control of government is among the most important factors in predicting whether a state will expand Medicaid. Given the positive economic and social benefits of the Medicaid expansion, this illustrates how conservative ideology can hamper good governance.

More recently, political scientists Christopher Witko and Nathan Kelly discovered that when economic growth is low, liberal and conservative governments perform similarly with regard to unemployment. However, when growth increases, Democrats do a better job turning that growth into lower unemployment.

Further, in another study , they find that state-level outcomes have played an increasingly important role in shifting the income distribution, meaning that these effects are even more meaningful. Democrats favor tax credits, which help the poor, while Republicans favor tax deductions, which benefit the rich.

The Economy Under Democratic vs. Republican Presidents - Reports - United States Joint Economic Committee

The effect is powerful:. People of color make up an increasingly large share of the middle and working class. In the past, as historian Ira Katznelson notes , government policy favored white upward mobility and left people of color behind.

They find that under Democratic presidents black poverty declined by Across 22 years with Democrats, the black unemployment rate fell 7. By contrast, under Republican administrations Latinos tend to lose income, become poorer, and experience greater unemployment. Further, they find deep gaps in income growth between Democrats and Republicans, with all racial groups seeing far faster gains under Democrats than Republicans, though Republicans still ensure whites gain the most see chart. Economic policy dramatically affects presidential races.

A recent study had a bombshell finding: Federal reserve policy benefitted Republicans by reducing interest rates before elections when Republicans control the White House, but hiking them when Democrats do. Ironically, then, Democrats gain very little in terms of electoral victories because of their superior economic management.

Two new studies of finance show that Democrats have shifted to the right on financial deregulation, dramatically increasing inequality. One of the studies links campaign contributions to Dodd-Frank roll call votes. A study by political scientists Alexander Hertel-Fernandez and Theda Skocpol finds that the rise and mobilization of the small-business lobby has divided Democrats on tax issues.

Further, a study by a group of political scientists notes that the strong status quo bias , exacerbated by conservative obstructionist politics, makes it increasingly difficult to implement inequality-reducing policies.

The results of a broad range of studies are clear, then: Progressive policies are better for economic growth, better at creating a racially equitable society, better at strengthening the middle class and better at reducing unemployment.

However, progressives must still grapple with the constraints imposed by globalized markets, the declining strength of organized labor , the rise of the donor class and low voter turnout. No regrets for Trump voters: Alexandria shooter acted alone Charlie May. Donald Trump is worth less than he was last year, but it has nothing to do with him Matthew Rozsa.

Trump voters will stand by their man Amanda Marcotte.

Uber founder Travis Kalanick resigns as CEO amid scandals Matthew Rozsa. Can playing video games make us more empathetic? Log out Sign in. Monday, Dec 28, But the data reveal a far different story Sean McElwee Skip to Comments Topics: Economics , election reform , Elections , safety net , tax policy , the economy , Politics News , News Credit: Economic Growth At the heart of the question is economic growth: Which party is better at delivering it?

Their results are unequivocal: The effect is powerful: Follow him on Twitter at seanmcelwee. Why Trump fans won't dump him now Amanda Marcotte.

What Is Better For The Stock Market – Republican Or Democrat? - Jack L. White | Seeking Alpha

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